Family Doctor.
Independent Voice.
Citizen Legislator.
Tom Coburn.
Coburn For Senate 2010
P.O. Box 977
Muskogee, OK 74402
918-684-4308
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Istook Announces Results from Senate Poll
Oklahoma City -- A just-released poll commissioned by Congressman Ernest Istook addresses the question of which Republican candidate has the best odds of defeating Democrat Brad Carson in November.
The poll of 500 statewide voters was conducted Monday and Tuesday, and shows that Republican Tom Coburn leads Democrat Brad Carson, but Carson has the lead over both Kirk Humphreys and Bob Anthony if they win the GOP primary. However, no candidate yet has support from a majority of voters.
Viewed from a Republican perspective, Coburn runs 7 points stronger than Anthony and 9 points stronger than Humphreys.
In head-to-head matchups:
Coburn leads Carson by 37% to 35%,
with 1% for an independent candidate and 26% undecided.Anthony trails Carson by 39% to 34%,
with 2% for the independent and 25% undecided. Humphreys trails Carson by 41% to 34%,
with 2% for the independent and 23% undecided.
Istook commented, "Republicans keep asking me who has the best chance to win in November, so I commissioned the poll to help answer that question, at least as voters see it today. It's crucial that we keep this as a Republican seat, so we don't give liberal Democrats control of the U.S. Senate. In Oklahoma, our Republican nominee must have super-solid support from the Republican base, and attract significant support from Democrats and independents."
The poll and its cross-tabulations were provided to University of Oklahoma political science professor, Dr. Keith Gaddie, who is available for media comment at (405) 325-2061
Dr. Gaddie's initial comments are:
(1) Rep. Carson is a strong candidate for the Democrats.
(2) Who is the GOP nominee affects the preferences of voters at this time. Mr. Anthony and Mr. Humphreys both run significantly behind Rep. Carson at this point in time, while Dr. Coburn has a small lead (two points) and is in a statistical tie with Rep. Carson.
(3) Dr. Coburn runs slightly stronger than the other Republicans. His major impact, though, is in weakening the core support for Rep. Carson. The net effect is a nine-point improvement over the Anthony/Humphreys matchups against the likely Democratic nominee.
(4) There are still four months until the general election. Any candidate will confront a tough campaign against Rep. Carson. The Coburn candidacy has the peculiar effect of both emboldening base Republicans while also competing for swing voters. This is intriguing, given the strong preference for Coburn first among conservatives.
(5) Despite having the highest degree of media penetration by the three candidates, Kirk Humphreys runs comparably with the candidate with the lowest penetration, Bob Anthony. As the Coburn and Anthony media further penetrate the electorate, the prospect exists for improved performance by both candidates in their matchups, assuming the penetration is positively perceived.
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